Russia prepares for possible direct military confrontation with Europe by 2045, Ukrainian Intelligence says

The assessment was published by Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service (SZRU), according to Ukrinform.

The report states that Russia's primary objective in Europe at present is to undermine support for Ukraine while keeping its own risks as low as possible.

To achieve this, Moscow has tools it can use more effectively than a direct invasion, the agency says. These include hybrid warfare tactics such as sabotage, cyberattacks, influence operations, disinformation, unexplained drone incursions, and espionage.

According to the SZRU, nearly 400 Russian intelligence officers are operating in Europe. Their activities allow Moscow to systematically test the limits of what other countries will tolerate while attempting to remain below the threshold that could trigger a collective NATO response.

"At the same time, it would be a mistake to assume that Russia has abandoned the prospect of a direct military confrontation with Europe. On the contrary, Moscow considers it one of the possible military conflict scenarios through 2045. Six of these scenarios are linked to Northern Europe. Scenarios involving Poland and the Baltic states are also being actively developed," the intelligence service stated.

It added that the Russian leadership needs an external enemy to justify its policies, mobilize society, and maintain control over the population.

The report emphasizes that Russia seeks to undermine European unity and discredit Europe's security architecture. One possible instrument is a controlled regional crisis on NATO's eastern flank.

According to Russian assessments cited by the Ukrainian intelligence service, the Baltic states are among the most vulnerable links in European security.

A potential scenario could involve creating a situation in which NATO is forced to make decisions amid uncertainty and severe time constraints.

The objective would not necessarily be to defeat NATO militarily, but rather to portray the alliance as incapable of responding quickly or collectively defending its members.

The SZRU also disputes the assumption that the Kremlin develops its plans without considering public opinion.

According to the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), Russians identify the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Poland, Finland, and the Baltic states as among the countries most hostile toward Russia.

At the same time, 61% of respondents believe it is time to pursue negotiations, while 59% believe Russia should intensify its aggressive actions if negotiations fail.

The intelligence service concludes that the Russian threat to Europe has long extended beyond the possibility of a direct attack. Russia is preparing for a prolonged confrontation in which its objectives toward Ukraine and Europe are closely interconnected.

Europe should therefore regard Ukraine not as a peripheral part of its security, but as an indispensable front line, the SZRU emphasizes. The underlying principle, it says, is that Ukraine's security and Europe's security are inseparable.

As previously reported, Oleh Ivashchenko, head of Ukraine's Defense Intelligence (HUR), said Russia has the military and economic resources to continue its war against Ukraine in 2027, but that these resources could be exhausted by 2028.